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美国大豆协会周度快报02-26

时间:2007-2-26 16:40:23 来源:网友

    1月份大豆压榨量略有下降

    美国油籽加工者协会(NOPA)公布的1月份压榨量为405万吨,比12月份略有下降,同时也低于11月份和10月份。由于豆粕和豆油疲软的现货市场使压榨利润受到限制,未来数月压榨进度可能还会进一步放慢。另外,豆粕出口依然令人失望,这说明压榨率有所下降。

    2006-2007年度到目前为止的压榨量比去年同期高3.8%。即使本年度今后的时间仍保持这一年度增幅,使压榨量达到4910万吨,今年的压榨势头也不可能像2005-2006年度下半年那样迅猛。

    1月份世界豆油出口量直线下降

    油类产品的市场份额已从去年12月份的44%和今年年初的43%下降到目前的40%。下降的原因可能有两方面,一是生物柴油在美国赢利能力不足,二是美国、巴西、阿根廷自年初以来大豆出口量大幅下降。

    2006年底,豆油对中国和欧盟25国的出口曾非常强劲,但到了今年1月份便开始急速下降。去年底豆油出口势头迅猛,可能是因为1月1日是使用双层船舶运输豆油的最后期限,出口商纷纷希望利用双层船舶向中国出口豆油。对于欧盟25国,生物柴油利润的下降似乎影响了豆油进口。

    初步数据表明,美国、巴西、阿根廷的豆油出口量将从1月份的34.4万吨反弹至2月份的70万吨。对中国的出口量有望从1月份的16.6万吨迅速反弹至2月份的约35万吨。但是,2月份对欧盟25国的豆油出口仍将不足10万吨,而去年6至11月的月度出口量均在10万吨以上。

    另外,给豆油份额造成压力的因素还包括三方面,一是豆粕的投机性购买开始兴起,二是NOPA豆油库存数的增幅超过预计,三是马来西亚棕榈油库存的降幅小于预计。自生物柴油问世以来,油料库存就常常不像市场预计的那样紧张。今年的情况看来又是如此,因为30美分的豆油价格和不足60美元的原油价格已使生物柴油产量受到限制。

    12月份运输需求上升

    12月份主要运输线路的货运量有所上升,比11月份上升了近1%,但与去年同期相比,却下降了2%多。运输统计局的货运服务指数提供了一个运输需求的写照。12月份货运量的上升正在导致近期货运量的下降。天气状况直到最近都保持良好,这很有可能使1月份的货运量进一步上升。但是,2月份将有可能面临天气带来的压力。

    货运量的走势为我们提供了一个观察美国经济走势的视角。自2003年12月以来的三年时间里,货运量走势变化总体处在同一范围内。这种上升后的稳定状态是美国近期形成的一种运作水平,也是美国面临的一个运输能力问题。如果不对公路、桥梁、铁路、航运、船闸、大坝、港口等基础设施投入一定数量的资金,美国的最大运力可能就仅限于此。

    另外,铁路运输正在受到冬季天气的影响。运输谷物的火车在一级铁路上的速度下降了8%,降至每小时19.4英里。不过,火车降速主要出现在东部地区,美国东北部及东部其它一些地区一直在经受严冬的考验。

    在截止2月7日的那一周,运往出口发货地点的谷物装车量减少了3000多车。这种下降在墨西哥湾沿岸(从阿拉巴马州的莫比尔港到德克萨斯州的加尔维斯顿港)尤其明显。太平洋西北沿岸也出现了运量下降,但情况与其它港口地区不同。另外,美国谷物出口进度的放慢也是导致向出口地点发货量下降的一个原因。

    康涅狄格大学开发出限制转基因生物污染的工具

    据美国国家事务出版公司(Bureau of National Affairs)报道,康涅狄格大学植物学家已开发出一种据称可以限制转基因生物通过其改造基因污染非转基因生物的工具。控制改造基因通过花粉及种子流入自然界是转基因作物反对者们的主要呼声之一。康涅狄格大学在一次新闻发布会上说,一种由植物学副教授Yi Li及其它人员在政府资助下开发的新型“转基因消除”技术可以减轻人们对转基因的顾虑,因为这种技术在运用于转基因作物的染色体后,可以几乎百分之百地将改造基因从转基因作物的花粉和种子中除去。

    但是,新闻发布会说,这种技术也遭到了批评,因为它会使转基因作物失去繁育能力,从而迫使农民每年都要购买新种子。“经过我们这种技术的处理后,农民们保留下来的种子将不再具有转基因特性,”Li的同事Hui Duan说。“如果农民们想让作物具有抗虫、抗除草剂等转基因特性,那么他们就需要每年都购买新的种子。但如果他们不想让作物具有转基因特性或没有足够的资金购买新种子,他们仍可以播种可繁育的[非转基因]种子。”

    由于大豆期价达到合约最高点,大豆类产品期价上升

    大豆期价创下合约最高点,豆油期价也随着石油期价进一步反弹,尽管豆油库存高于预计,在这种情况下,2月22日收盘时大豆类产品期价上升。大豆期价深受玉米期价的影响,因为在播种面积的争夺中,玉米再次取得领先地位,而且人们已开始担关注春季播种和夏季作物生长了。3月份大豆期货价格上升$0.92为$287.98,5月份上升$0.92为$294.13,7月份上升$1.29为299.55;3月份豆粕期货价格上升$0.11为$255.07,5月份上升$0.99为$262.46,7月份上升$1.54为$267.86;3月份豆油期货价格上升$4.41,仍为$668.43,5月份上升$3.09为$680.34,7月份上升$3.75,为$690.70。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Soybean Crush Declines Slightly In January

The January NOPA crush of 4.05 million tonnes reflected a slight reduction in the crush from December, which was down from November and October. It appears that the crush rate will slip further in the coming months given weak cash soybean meal and oil markets that have eroded cash crush margins. Moreover, soybean meal exports continue to be disappointing, suggesting lower crush rates.

The crush so far in 2006-07 was 3.8 percent above last year. While a continuation of this year-over-year percentage increase the rest of 2006-07 would result in a crush of 49.1 million tonnes, it is unlikely that this year’s crush will be able to keep up with the unusually strong crush of the last half of 2005-06.

World Soybean Oil Exports Plummet in January

The oil product share has dropped from 44 percent in December and 43 percent at the start of 2007 to less than 40 percent currently. This erosion in the oil share may be due to lack of biodiesel profitability in the U.S. and the sharp drop off in the soybean exports from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina since the first of the year.

Soybean oil exports were strong at the end of calendar year 2006 to China and the EU-25, but those exports dropped precipitously during January. There may have been a rush to export soybean oil before the January 1 deadline to use double-hulled vessels for shipping soybean oil and a strategy to position vessels in China to be double-hulled. In the EU-25, a deterioration of biodiesel margins appears to have undermined soybean oil imports.

Preliminary data suggests that soybean oil exports from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina will rebound to more than 700,000 tonnes in February from just 344,000 tonnes in January. Exports to China look like they will bounce back nicely to about 350,000 in February from 166,000 tonnes in January. Soybean oil exports to the EU-25 during February, however, will remain below the 100,000-tonne level that was exceeded from June to November.

Also weighing on the oil share has been a surge of speculative buying of soybean meal, a larger than-expected increase in NOPA soybean oil stocks and a smaller-than-expected decline in Malaysia palm oil stocks. As has often been the case since biodiesel has come on scene, oil stocks have not tightened as much as the market has expected. That looks to be the case again this year after 30-cent soybean oil and sub-$60 crude oil has undermined biodiesel production.

Transport Demand Improved During December

The volume of freight moving on the U.S. infrastructure improved during December, up less than one percent from November. However, volumes year-over-year were down more than 2 percent. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics freight transportation services index provides a snapshot of transport demand. The uptick in December is encouraging following recent declines. The decent weather until just recently will probably lead to further improvement reported for January. However, February will be pressured due to the weather.

The volume of freight provides some insight into the economic health of the country. The volume has generally been in the same range for three years, back to December 2003. This plateau is a new operating level for the U.S., but also one that might reflect the capacity issues this country faces. Without considerable investment in the infrastructure, whether highways, bridges, railroads, navigation, locks and dams, and ports, this maybe the maximum level for movement.

Meanwhile, railroad performance is being affected by the winter weather. Grain train speeds are off 8 percent to 19.4 miles per hour among the Class I railroads. But most of the drop is on the eastern railroads that have been facing the brunt of the severe winter weather through the Northeast and other areas of the eastern United States.

Grain carloadings to export position dropped more than 3,000 carloadings for the week that ended February 7. The decrease was mostly seen along the Gulf Coast, from Mobile, AL to Galveston, TX. The Pacific Northwest did see carloadings drop as well, but not in a similar fashion as the other port areas. Also, U.S. grain exports have slowed, leading to a subsequent slowness in carloadings to export positions.

University Of Connecticut Develops Tool That Limits Biotech Crop Contamination

The Bureau of National Affairs reports that University of Connecticut plant biologists have developed a tool they say could prevent biotech crops from contaminating nonbiotech crops or weeds with their transgenic genes. Controlling the flow of transgenic genes into the wild via pollen and seeds has been a major source of public opposition to biotech crops. The university said in a news release that a new “genetically modified gene deletor” technology, developed with government funding by Yi Li, an associate professor of plant science, and others, could help alleviate this concern. That is because the technology, when incorporated into the genome of biotech crops, eliminates nearly 100 percent of the transgenic genes from the pollen and seeds of those crops.

However, this process has been criticized because it renders the biotech crops sterile and thus forces farmers to buy new seeds every year, according to the news release. “With our technology, the seeds the farmers save will not have genetically-modified traits,” said Hui Duan, one of Li’s fellow researchers. “The farmers would need to buy new seeds each year if they want the crops to have genetically-modified traits such as insect resistance or herbicide resistance. But if they did not want to do so or could not afford to do so, they would still be left with viable [nonbiotech] seeds to replant.”

Soy Complex Up As Soybeans Hit Contract Highs 

The soy complex was up on February 22 with soybeans making new contract highs and the oil share rebounding further along with petroleum futures despite larger-than-expected soybean oil stocks. Soybean futures are highly influenced by corn as that market has once again taken the lead as the competition for acreage continues and weather concerns emerge for spring planting and summer crop development. March bean futures closed up $0.92 finishing at $287.98; May was $0.92 higher, closing at $294.13; and July gained $1.29 ending at $299.55. March meal was up $0.11 closing at $255.07; May was $0.99 higher, finishing at $262.46; and July increased $1.54 to finish at $267.86. March oil closed $4.41 higher to finish at $668.43; May was up $3.09, closing at $680.34; and July gained $3.75, ending at $690.70.


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